Growth Is Not an Event – It Is a Commitment
Aviation, Capacity, and the Reality of System-Led Growth
By Stephan Junghans, Nov. 2025
For more than twenty-five years now, I have been traveling professionally around the world. More than fifty flights a year are more the rule than the exception. Flying itself never loses its fascination but to be honest the service is sadly not the same as it was 15 yrs ago, most of the process becomes a standard routine, the cabins of the different airplanes are familiar and look the same now and distances seem to shrink.
Yet while traveling becomes a given, the system behind gains weight and significance.
Especially during longer transfer and layover times, my gaze consciously shifts from inside the terminal to the operation on the apron outside. Standing at the window, watching the choreography of a technically complex interplay, between pushback operations, maintenance, refueling, and loading, the true pulse of aviation reveals itself. One does not merely observe movements, but decisions. Patterns emerge in the sequence of processes, in the choreography of humans and machines, in the quiet efficiency of practiced routines.
The different aircraft types in particular tell us their own stories. Some models are in constant motion; others appear almost out of time. From their parking positions, their condition, or their operational use, some seem to have long exceeded their planned lifespan but are still indispensable for fulfilling certain tasks; replacements are hard to find. One can read what role they still play within the overall system, and which are slowly moving away from the operational center.
Some time ago, during a transit in Chicago, Miami and Los Angeles, my attention lingered longer than usual. It was not a single aircraft, nor an extraordinary event. It was the accumulation, the repetition, the quiet consistency of certain patterns on the cargo apron. What initially appeared to be a random snapshot gradually condensed into a recurring image, one that raised some questions for me.
In moments like these, thinking does not begin in conference rooms or market studies, but out there, at the edge of the apron, the runways and taxiways. Where technology, operations, economics, and time pressure meet the unfiltered and where the future often becomes visible long before it is officially named. And the longer one is part of this system, the clearer it becomes: aviation is not a product.
International aviation is a promise, and it’s absolutely essential, for passengers but especially for high-value, time-critical, and supply-chain-sensitive industries across the world and plays a huge impact for the global economy.
A promise of connectivity, reliability, and continuity—under conditions of constant change. There is no standstill, nor can there be. Airports change, air traffic changes, relentlessly, every day. Yet the core expectation remains the same: to move people and cargo safely, reliably, and predictably around the globe. Stability in aviation does not arise from stagnation, but from continuous, controlled improvements and transformation.
From Expansion to Adaptation
In the 1980s and 1990s, wide-body aircraft such as the DC-10 or MD-11, the L-1011, and the Boeing 747 were symbols of an expanding world. Many of these types have disappeared today - not because they failed, but because their mission was fulfilled and demand and times changed.
The Boeing 747, however, has remained. Not out of nostalgia, but out of pure necessity. Some variants have been in service for more than 35 years and are still an indispensable part of certain segments. Its combination of capacity and range remains a strategic factor in global air cargo to this day.
That its production ended after almost 54 years does not mark a rupture, but rather a somewhat somber transition. More than four hundred of the 1,574 aircraft delivered worldwide are still in service around ninety percent of them as freighters. This is no historical coincidence. It is system logic and that system is growing.
Market analysts forecast that the global air cargo market will reach a volume of around USD 200 billion in 2026 and grow to over USD 400 billion by 2035, with an annual growth rate in the high single digits.
This growth is not cyclical. It is structural. Yet growth is never abstract.
Growth materializes in aircraft. In people. In maintenance capacity. In spare parts.
Industry forecasts show that the global cargo fleet will grow by around forty-five percent in the long term. A significant portion of this increase will not come from new production alone, but also from passenger-to-freighter conversions. Older passenger aircraft are being converted because production lines for new aircraft are fully utilized and the order backlog for the coming years exceeds seventeen thousand aircraft—a backlog of nearly twelve years. (@Airbus)
The system does not react ideally, but pragmatically.
The consequence is clear: aircraft must remain in service longer. Fleets may age, but in a very controlled manner. Efficiency is being redefined, not as a theoretical optimum, but as an available resource and practical reality.
More aircraft also mean more crews. The industry expects a global need for around five hundred thousand new pilots by the 2040s. While the share attributable to air cargo is relatively small, in absolute terms we are still talking about tens of thousands of additional cargo pilots by 2035. (@cockpit.aero)
Aircraft do not grow without people.
The bottleneck becomes even more evident in maintenance. A growing and simultaneously aging fleet generates a disproportionate demand for predictable maintenance and overhaul capacity—without even accounting for unplanned maintenance. According to manufacturer forecasts, the global civil fleet will grow by more than thirty percent by 2035.
Maintenance intervals cannot be scaled,
although maintenance models can change and be adapted to utilization.
Qualification, however, cannot be accelerated; it typically requires years of training and additional experience. Beyond the aircraft themselves, personnel and MRO capacity become the even greater limiting factors to growth.
Supply Chains Under Pressure
Added to this is the pressure on the critically important spare parts supply. When new production by manufacturers cannot keep up pace, inventory levels, spare parts demand, and capital tie-up increase. Older aircraft require a larger stock of certified components, greater MRO capacity, expanded storage space, and last but not least a significant demand for financial capital. All of this plays a decisive role.
Globally distributed fleets require global logistics.
The supply chain does not become shorter. It becomes more complex and more critical.
Perhaps this is precisely where the real challenge of the coming decade lies:
Growth is not a question of demand. Growth is a question of system capability.
The aviation of the future will not be determined solely by new aircraft, but by the ability to operate existing systems longer, more safely, and more intelligently.
Leadership in this context means managing transitions, anticipating bottlenecks, and building resilience.
Not everything that is old is obsolete.
And not everything that is new is immediately available.
The future of air cargo does not lie in either/or choices, but in the deliberate interplay of growth, experience, and strategic foresight. Aviation is a constant transformation.
Perhaps this is where the central challenge of the coming decade emerges:
Growth is not a question of demand.
Growth is a question of system capability.
The aviation industry of the future will not be defined solely by new aircraft, but by the ability to operate existing systems longer, more safely, and more intelligently. Leadership, in this environment, is no longer about expansion alone. It’s about managing transition, anticipating bottlenecks, building resilience, allocating resources with precision.
It lies in the deliberate balance between experience, infrastructure, and forward-looking strategy.
Aviation is not static. It is continuous transformation.
Conclusion: Business in Transition
What we are experiencing today is not merely growth, it is a structural transition of the aviation industry.
Business models are shifting fundamentally. The focus is moving away from expansion-driven strategies toward capability-driven execution. Success is no longer determined by how quickly an organization can grow, but by how effectively it can sustain growth within real-world constraints.
Organizations that recognize this shift will reposition themselves accordingly, they will:
- Invest in lifecycle management rather than short-term asset turnover
- Strengthen MRO capabilities and workforce development
- Build resilient, globally integrated supply chains
- Prioritize operational intelligence over theoretical efficiency
In this environment, competitive advantage will not be defined by access to the newest aircraft - but by the ability to operate the entire system more intelligently and more reliably.
The industry is entering a phase where adaptability becomes the primary currency of success.
Growth will continue - but only for those who can support it.
Because in the end:
Growth is not an event.
It is a commitment.
About the Author
Stephan Junghans is an aviation executive with extensive experience in aircraft maintenance, operations, and MRO leadership across North America and Europe. His work focuses on workforce development, operational performance, and the strategic role of maintenance in an increasingly constrained global aviation environment.